The Year Ahead
One of the top futurists, Dr Dixon was asked to take a look at the year to come, and answer a few questions on what he thought would be in store for us! 1. In the UK economy?
"These are exceptionally hard times. We are about half way through the current crisis - this has been going on already over 18 months. We can expect a tough year ahead and things to start picking up in 2010. Companies that make redundancies early and have conserved cash should do well in the upturn: lean and fit and with finances available to buy up other companies or assets at knock-down prices. A lot of fuss has been made about the fall in the pound but this will be really good news for companies that sells goods or services outside the UK, and will also mean that people will spend more at home - whether on holidays or other things." 2. Housing Market! should we sell up or stay put? Is renting a good option right now? Will housing become realistically affordable again?
"Each person's circumstances are totally unique but here are some general thoughts. The house market is most likely to continue to fall sharply, but it should eventually level out. The lower the falls are, and the lower mortgage interest rates go, the more likely it is that we will see a rebound and strong recovery, as many will decide to come back into the market or enter for the first time. Much has been said about mortgage markets changing forever, but that is unlikely. The mortgage market will eventually settle down, and will become more attractive and competitive again. Once we become convinced we are in the early stages of a Strong property price recovery, the loan to value ratios become more relaxed, and we will see a return of 90% mortgages. Homeowner loans are the highest and most important financial transaction most will do in their lifetimes with the exception of personal pensions, so will become once again a very important part of retail financial services.
"Remember that the cost of buying or selling is high with legal fees, stamp duty and the rest. The cost of renting has not fallen as quickly as house prices yet in many areas so renting is more expensive than you may think. Housing is much more affordable than for years - we have seen salary inflation of 3.5% or more over the last 2 -3 years, while property prices have fallen up to 15%. Put the two together and you have about 25% fall in costs - and that is before the mortgage rates started to fall, already by 30% in some cases. When you look at the whole picture it seems likely that in the next 6 months time we will see some wonderful bargains, with actual costs of ownership each month of less than 50 percent of what it was just 18 months ago. First time buyers will still need a larger deposit than in past. Remember too: most people own to live in a home and not for a 2-10 year investment. It is vital to take a long term view in all property decisions." 3. Jon Market.. what industries are the most likely to make drastic job cuts? What are employment chances like right now if you lose your job?
"Retail jobs will be very hard hit in January to June as reality begins to hit home. McDonalds, Lidl and some others trading at the bottom of their markets will continue to do very well. The jobs market in many sectors is surprisingly strong with 850,000 vacancies that were officially known about in December 2008. In past downturns it has been unusual for well motivated and talented people to be out of work for more than a year." 4. Credit/borrowing market! will we stop being reliant on cheap credit? Will we now think about saving more?
"These are just cycles. We are just about to enter a new cheap credit boom, with the lowest borrowing costs in living memory. The result in the medium term is likely to be another overshoot, high inflation, high interest rates, eventually leading to another crash which could happen by 2015. As we have seen - swings can happen very fast from one end to the other."
To manage your finances over the next few months, your age, those Britons concerned about their capacity to manage their money may want to apply for a cheap loan. By taking out such a loan, borrowers may find that they can merge various financial commitments into a single low-cost monthly repayment.
5. World economy! what will be the affect of the world economy has on us all? What about pound and our travel/work abroad?
"The global economy will continue to lurch from event to event. All eyes will be looking out for the price of the dollar. Despite this massive US crisis the dollar has retained or increased value against many currencies, as billions of dollars of US investments in other nations are brought back to service debts and other priority commitments. Eventually the massive return flows will slow down. When that happens the question will be who will still want to buy dollars? Countries such as China have bought over a trillion of US dollars and are holding them for now. But what if they start to sell? They can't sell too many or they will force a dollar crash and the rest of their assets will be worth much less. But they could sell enough to force a gradual dollar decline"
Steve Smith writes for All About Loans. Visist us today to apply for cheap loans online, personal finance, and UK tenant loans.
Published January 22nd, 2009
